READY TO RUMBLE
Major-conference tournaments have stories to watch
Major-conference tournaments have stories to watch
By Andy Glockner
There will also be a lot nail-biting as Missouri State waits until March 11.
Five days till Selection Sunday, when you can print brackets and revel in Madness. But there's a lot going on between now and then.
After a couple of relatively quiet days in Bracketville, things will start to get a lot busier Wednesday when the Big East opens the big-boy portion of Championship Week.
Although the large-arena venues and the possibility of multiple at-large berths mean major-conference tournaments often lack the same intensity seen in smaller gyms around the land, it doesn't mean these games are unimportant -- for the participants or for mid-major teams such as Missouri State, Old Dominion and Drexel that are trying to hang on to positions right on the cusp of the NCAA Tournament.
As such, here are a number of story lines to watch as you take in the five days leading up to Selection Sunday:
The race for No. 1 seeds
Being a No. 1 seed may simply sound prestigious, but there are legitimate competitive advantages to being one, especially this season.
First, No. 1 seeds essentially get a bye into the second round, as no No. 16 seed has ever won a first-round game. Having to win, in essence, three competitive games instead of four makes a huge difference in a team's ability to progress.
Last year's lack of upsets in conference tournaments compacted the bracket at the bottom, pushing quality teams down into the 14- and 15-seed lines (and even the 16, with Oral Roberts). That led to three of the 2-vs.-15 games being extremely close and to No. 3 seed Iowa falling to No. 14 seed Northwestern State. We're seeing the same thing this season; the first 10 auto bids from smaller conferences went to either the top seed or second seed in those tournaments, so beware.
Also, there looks to be a significant drop-off after the No. 10 position or so in the S-Curve, meaning this season's 4-seeds will be (A) significantly weaker than the 3s, and (B) not significantly better than the 8-seeds. That means a 1-seed also will get an easier Sweet 16 game if seeds hold than a 2- or 3-seed that will be playing a comparable opponent in that round.
UCLA looks locked in to be the No. 1 seed out West, but the other three No. 1s still look up for grabs. If the Big Ten tournament champion is either Ohio State or Wisconsin, that team should nail down another No. 1. That leaves two for some combination of Kansas, North Carolina, Florida, the loser of the Big Ten final, and possibly Texas A&M.
Teams that might only need one win to dance
There are a number of teams that appear to be a win away from solidifying their spots in the NCAAs, just needing to avoid a first-round or quarterfinal loss to be sure.
That list includes Syracuse (faces UConn in the Big East's opening round), Kansas State (gets a bye into the Big 12 quarters), Texas Tech (which coincidentally will be playing Kansas State in that quarterfinal if it can handle Colorado), Michigan State (vs. Northwestern in the Big Ten's opening round), Georgia Tech (vs. Wake Forest in the ACC's first round), Stanford (vs. USC in the Pac-10 quarters) and Air Force (vs. Wyoming in the MWC quarters).
If you are a fan of a team truly on the bubble, you are rooting hard for as many of those teams as possible to crash out in their tournament openers.
Teams that could find some trouble with an opening-game loss
There is a handful of teams that have looked good for a while but have slid recently to the point that you have to at least take a second look at their profiles should they lose their tournament opener.
That list obviously includes the teams listed above, but it also includes Boston College (would finish 19-11, would be only 7-8 without Sean Williams, with two of those wins being over New Hampshire and Hartford, and would have closed with five losses in six games) and USC (RPI would be close to 60; went 0-4 against the two best teams in the Pac-10; and nonconference schedule, albeit without Gabe Pruitt, is fairly barren). Indiana (5-7 vs. RPI Top 50, but no losses outside Top 100) also could be worth a second look if it loses to Illinois in the Big Ten quarters. (As an aside, the win over Southern Illinois is the gift that keeps giving for the Hoosiers -- evidence that high-majors can benefit from playing elite mids.)
I find it hard to believe at this point that there will be enough teams with profiles that could pass teams like that, but it's not 100 percent unthinkable.
Teams that can win multiple games and/or steal an auto bid
This is the nightmare group for those teams already on the bubble. You have to sit and watch as someone gets hot and gets the wins needed to pass you. Or you could have a team like Syracuse move from likely out of the bracket to an auto bid in four days. Also, remember that South Carolina came within a whisker last season of running through the SEC tournament, so it's not as rare as you think.
This season's list of potential megaspoilers includes Washington (even if the Huskies can't seem to do anything away from home), Providence (which has the talent to go deep in the Big East if it can get past a desperate-but-not-good-on-the-road West Virginia team in the opening round) and DePaul (similar situation to Providence, but might not need to win the final to be considered).
Then there's the group of teams that could win more than one game and find themselves back in the at-large mix. That would include Clemson (opens against Florida State, then would get North Carolina), Michigan (opens with Minnesota, then would get Ohio State), and maybe even a team like Arkansas (which has some decent nonconference wins).
Andy Glockner is the men's college basketball editor at ESPN.com and the host of ESPNU College Basketball Insider.
