The Oscar Races Are (Almost) All Dead Heats
Helen Mirren looks like a sure thing, but after that, well, they don’t call it gambling for nothing.
Web-Exclusive Commentary
By Sean Smith
By Sean Smith
- The smartest way to win your Oscar pool this year may be to not play. At no time in recent history have the races been this unpredictable. Will Martin Scorsese finally win? Is Helen Mirren a lock? Will Eddie Murphy be a shoo-in, or get scuttled by Alan Arkin? Is “Borat” going to get skunked? And which of the five nominees will score the Academy Award for best picture? The ballots are in, the fates are sealed, but the envelopes won’t be opened until Sunday, Feb 25. If you can’t wait—and insist on gambling—JOE Magazine offers this insider analysis on every category. We’ve spoken to Hollywood’s smartest Oscar strategists and voters, we’ve tracked the races all year, and we’ve studied history for patterns and precedents. We still don’t know what the hell is going to happen, but we think we’ve got it right. Just don’t bet the house on it.
BEST PICTURE
Talk about a nail-biter. There’s no certain front runner in this category. The two top contenders are “Babel” and “Little Miss Sunshine,” which may be the most discordant pairing in Academy history. “Sunshine” has won awards from the Golden Globes, the Screen Actors Guild, the Writers Guild and the Producers Guild. It’s a breakout indie hit, a fave with the public, and there’s genuine affection for it within the industry. But the Academy also turns an eye toward history when choosing the best picture winner. This story about a family of losers may, ultimately, be too lightweight. It’s nominated in four categories, which indicates it has broad support, but it got overlooked in the directing and editing categories, which is significant. In the last 20 years, no film has won best picture without being at least nominated for editing, and 60 percent of best pic winners have earned both prizes. What’s more, the Academy consistently snubs comedy. In the past 20 years, only “Shakespeare in Love” managed to surmount that snobbery, and it had The Bard in its corner. “Babel” is a heavy, multinational drama with the patina of importance and themes that speak specifically to this moment in a post-9/11 world. It has been nominated in six categories—including director, editing and original screenplay nods—but it has been a low-grossing underdog ever since it was released, has endured more than its share of negative reviews and it seems to have a lot of enemies. “Nobody loves that movie,” says one veteran Oscar strategist. “Have you heard anyone say, ‘Oh, I love ‘Babel?’” Well, no, but it has also become a movie that people are afraid to say they like, just like last year’s winner, “Crash,” was. Clearly, enough people love it to give it so many nominations. Do they love it enough—albeit quietly—to give it the trophy?
A possible dark horse in this race—and we do mean dark—is Martin Scorsese’s “The Departed.” It hasn’t won many awards—except for Scorsese’s directing wins—but it is the biggest commercial hit of the five, and has a strong fan base. In the end, though, it is probably too profane, too violent and too much of a genre flick to get the Academy’s biggest prize. That said, the 1991 winner, “The Silence of the Lambs,” wasn’t exactly a period romance.
A possible dark horse in this race—and we do mean dark—is Martin Scorsese’s “The Departed.” It hasn’t won many awards—except for Scorsese’s directing wins—but it is the biggest commercial hit of the five, and has a strong fan base. In the end, though, it is probably too profane, too violent and too much of a genre flick to get the Academy’s biggest prize. That said, the 1991 winner, “The Silence of the Lambs,” wasn’t exactly a period romance.
Prediction: “Babel,” by an eyelash, with “Sunshine” in second, and the rest of the pack blazing on their heels.
BEST DIRECTOR
Well, it looks like it’s finally going to be Martin Scorsese’s year, after losing in this category five times. Everyone agrees he’s way overdue for an Oscar, but ironically, few people seem to think “The Departed” is the movie he should win for. (“Taxi Driver”? “Raging Bull”? “Goodfellas”? Come on.) He’ll get it anyway, as long as the Academy decides that it's not Clint Eastwood's year. For a change.
Prediction: Marty by a length.
BEST ACTOR
The safe money is on Forest Whitaker for “The Last King of Scotland.” He has won every major prize leading up to the Oscars, is respected and liked by his fellow actors, and delivered the most mesmerizing performance of his career. So he’s a lock, right? Mmm, maybe. Peter O’Toole has turned on his considerable charm since arriving in L.A., and one Oscar voter said he suspected that a lot of voters only really watched O’Toole’s performance in “Venus” after he was nominated. It’s possible the legend may take it in an upset, which would be an emotional moment for everyone, not just Whitaker. And let’s face it, the speech would be better.
Prediction: Whitaker, with O’Toole gaining speed on the outside.
BEST ACTRESS
Ah, a sure thing, at last. Helen Mirren is the most definite win of the night, having scored every possible award for her portrayal of England’s monarch in “The Queen.” A nuanced, controlled powerhouse performance that only a great actress could deliver—the apex (so far) of an astounding career. The only thing going against her, at all, is that people may be tired of seeing her win. One Oscar voter told JOE Magazine that she checked her ballot against the front runners in almost every category this year, hoping to give the Oscar telecast a few surprises. “I voted against boredom,” she said. “I voted for Meryl Streep.”
Prediction: Mirren by a mile. Not even boredom—or a thoroughbred like Streep—can catch her.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Eddie Murphy won both the Golden Globe and the SAG award. It’s the best performance of his career. He’s been the front runner for weeks. But he’s made no secret of the fact that he initially turned down his golden-ticket role in “Dreamgirls” because the pay was too low, even though he’s made a fortune slumming in low-brow comedy. His latest, “Norbit,” released during the height of Oscar season, also made it clear that “Dreamgirls” is not a turning point for Murphy, but an anomaly. He also has a reputation for being a paranoid narcissist, which, fairly or not, makes it hard to root for him. If all of that information has seeped into the Academy’s consciousness, Murphy could lose this statue to Alan Arkin, for his portrayal of an oversexed junkie grandfather with a heart of gold in “Little Miss Sunshine.” If that happens, Murphy can always console himself with his bank balance.
Prediction: Talent still outweighs ego. Murphy takes it.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Hudson’s jaw-dropping, ovation-generating debut in “Dreamgirls,” is the underdog role of a lifetime and will almost certainly score her the Oscar in this category. Not only is Hudson’s performance a stunner, but also the Academy has often used this category to anoint a new star--e.g. Angelina Jolie, Jennifer Connelly, Cate Blanchett. Sometimes too new. Kids sometimes steal this award away from the adults. Think Tatum O’Neal and Anna Paquin. It’s possible that “Sunshine” sweetie Abigail Breslin could nab this from Hudson.
Prediction: Hudson belts it into the bleachers.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Oddly, all the voters interviewed for this story predicted that Pixar’s “Cars” would win, but almost all said they voted for Sony’s “Monster House.” Pixar has always been the 800-pound gorilla in this category, but “Cars” didn’t connect with viewers emotionally. Could the kings of animation lose the crown?
Prediction: “Cars,” but keep an eye out for “Monster House,” which could pull off upstart upset.
